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So You Think You Can....Win?
For your amusement, DCPers, I am sharing my analysis my university put out last week, picked up by apparently no one, so it is here for us to discuss. Anyone have a different perspective or insight?
Judge the Presidential Match-Ups by the Fancy Footwork, Say Experts
Ahead of Super Tuesday, a non-verbal communication expert at the University of ____ offers an unusual perspective on the potential presidential match-ups in the election next November: by reading the candidates’ gestures and movements.
“It’s not how they run, it’s how they dance,” says Karen Bradley, a visiting associate professor of dance at the University of ___.
Among the observations offered by Bradley and her colleague, Karen Studd, an associate professor of dance at _____ University: Clinton vs. McCain “may look more like wrestling than waltzing,” while an Obama-McCain match would resemble a nimble, virtuosic dribbler vs. a “tight end,” with a “stolid and relentless ability to keep pushing back and through.”
Here’s their complete analysis and contact information. Both are certified movement analysts:
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Judge the Presidential Match-Ups by the Fancy Footwork
By Karen Bradley and Karen Studd
Forget the polling data on how the remaining presidential contenders might fare against each other in November. You can get a visceral sense of what the match-ups may produce by the way the candidates move. As certified movement analysts, we see campaigns as elaborate dances and, sometimes, athletic confrontations.
Clinton vs. McCain: Flat-Footed Flamenco
Both of these candidates are running as solid, experienced, grounded leaders; both have a touch of high-mindedness. But while Mrs. Clinton showed some softness and accommodation and Mr. McCain showed a small moment of actual enjoyment in New Hampshire, expect this dance to be brutal and tough. Neither of these two is likely to “follow” the other. Both can have set jaws and we can imagine the grit with which they may face each other. And both are capable of holding their ground and digging in their heels. In fact, the contest may look more like wrestling than waltzing.
Obama vs. McCain: The Basketball Player and the Tight End
This one would be interesting. Do the American people prefer the one who can dribble for a while until making the shot? Or do we want the solid immovable guy who will hunker down and block the pass? Barack Obama’s short spurts of flow, coupled with his ability to almost levitate when he gets going on his oratory, contrast with John McCain’s stolid and relentless ability to keep pushing back and through. Watch the difference in how they stand behind a podium and deliver a message: Obama seems to be dancing back there, turning this way and that, while McCain holds onto the sides of the podium and occasionally stares down his opponents.
Clinton vs. Romney: The Realist and the Optimist
This could turn into a movie musical, with the relentlessly upbeat Romney tap dancing his way into the hearts of millions, while Hillary Clinton tries to transcend her dark, somber modern dance. Or, viewed from the opposite side of the stage, it might look like Hillary Clinton dancing circles around the always-erect Mitt Romney. Nobody would make her seem more down-to-earth than the oddly cheerful Mr. Romney and no one would make him seem more optimistic and hopeful than the grounded, pragmatic Mrs. Clinton.
Obama vs. Romney: The Cakewalk Competition
In this scenario, Obama would come off as the virtuosic mover, while Romney would keep it simple. They would not even pay a shred of attention to each other. We are not sure that even eye contact would ensue. In competition dances, this may be best. It would remain to be seen who has the best moves and who “takes the cake.” And yes, that is, in part, a race reference: the Cakewalk was a competition dance between slaveholders of slaves out-performing each other, with the winning dancer taking the cake. Such competitions produced an evolution of dance steps the world had never before beheld, blending African, Irish, and English contra-danse. But in the Romney-Obama competition, we would not expect much blending to take place.
Obama vs. Huckabee: Liturgical Dance of the American Spirit
Here you would see two men who do well from the pulpit, taking a higher road – perhaps a more lyrical one to boot. Both men have rhythm and game and a connection to their hearts. Both are highly relational and attuned to the audience, and both perform with grace. Gov. Huckabee often spreads his arms and then brings the conclusion of his message straight to his chest, with a gesture to and from the heart. Sen. Obama often turns from one side to the other with a gesture of the hand from the heart to the audience, a reaching out and across.
Clinton vs. Huckabee: The Arkansas Two-Step
Mrs. Clinton would have to channel her ability to be a little softer, more southern, more mobile, and surely she will need to listen and attune more. Mr. Huckabee will need to get a little tougher and become more a paragon of strength in addition to being a paragon of compassion. Expect a lot of trading off between meandering and straight pathways, between zooming in and stepping back to take in the whole. This competition is complex and full!
The season promises to provide an extravaganza of opportunities to assess the abilities of these candidates to perform, respond, interact and reveal who they truly are. And as the music changes constantly, with new beats and tunes required, steps are easy to change, if one is listening and responsive to the music. It’s not how they run; it’s how they dance.
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Just wanting to comment on my own thread: I do not for one minute think that the analyses I do are happy-talk about these candidates. I am not endorsing any of them. My purpose is to pay some attention and bring some focus to their actual modes of decision-making, because I do believe that matters in a democracy.
I also believe that movement behavior reveals how they will be perceived in the world. From that perspective, there are great differences among John McCain, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama in terms of who appears immoveable, negotiable, or "strong". In fact, I would like to have a public discussion about the word "strong". What does it mean? What is strength? Who is truly STRONG?
My .02 for what it's worth in my unprofessional movement analysis opinion.
Clinton vs. McCain: Flat-Footed Flamenco
I have to speak from the perspective I've seen on television shows or the debates. I have never seen them 'live' to know if their real mannerisms are the same or not.
Hillary seems much more than solid to me. She seems solid and agile. She holds her ground and is solid in the respect that she plants herself and she stakes out her space. But she's also agile in that she leans towards her audience, turns an ear towards them or turns her eyes towards them and you can see that she is involved in the discussion, even if her own mind is made up, her appearance is of a person who is communicating with someone. I guess I mean by this that her postures are outward. She isn't just planted and then lost in her own world. She is a part of Hillary-world and of your world.
Now McCain on the other hand is planted alright! He is planted in his own zone. He crosses his hands, his eyes don't seem to engage with anyone, his doesn't maintain a listening pose. He is simply planted like a statue--but the statue also speaks. When he speaks, he obviously answers questions, but if you look at his posture, he seems to me to be reflecting inward. I suppose it's suppose to come across as a thoughtful person, and normally, I would say that, but instead, he comes across as a person debating within himself what to say. He's no longer maintaining the posture of "I'm gonna give it to you straight whether you like it or not." Instead, he seems to be reaching inside himself, weighing his thoughts, and decoding his words right in front of us. He's planted alright, but his body posture and his eyes seem more planted on whatever internal debate he's having than on anything outside in the real world. I would say he's not a communicator.
I take it back. I did see Hillary live. I have never seen McCain live, though I was tempted to protest him when he came to S----- in o4. But I couldn't make it that day, so I didn't.
Obama vs. McCain: The Basketball Player and the Tight End
Ok. So this one made me laugh. It's so appropriate. One is bulky and wide and the other is narrow and lithe. So visually, it cracked me up.
However, I guess I use the canine breed as my analogy. An old fox v a young pup.
You have to admit that McCain looks like he's too old but on the other hand that age may come across as wisdom. (I'm sure it's what they're counting on.) But Obama when next to McCain looks like a young pup--frisky and agile--but a pup is usually dominated by a strong aggressive leader who 'takes him in hand.'
In the animal world, the master will go for the throat and go in for the kill. Of course when it's their own pups, they don't actually kill them but they do go for the throat and force them into a submissive position.
So even though a pup may have speed, functioning braincells, and agility, a slow steady, rock solid, but aggressive leader will stalk and manipulate the pup into putting himself in the position where the leader could quickly attack and throw him down and force him into the submissive position.
My point is that McCain may have developed those aggressive tendencies but keeps things in his head as he manipulates the world around him--forcing the world into submissive behaviors. Or maybe that is giving McCain more intellectual credit than he deserves. I don't know. He did hire a Rove-like campaign manager and the media didn't report on it!
On the other hand, Obama obviously is agile, intellectual, and steadily working towards a goal. He has good people, with experience, who have endorsed him, and he's bringing a new way of organization to his campaign. So the question remains, will he fall into one of McCain's traps? Will McCain look like the older-wiser dog and Obama look like a foolish pup? Or will Obama be able to push back against McCain in a way that makes McCain fall back.
OH. I do want to add about Hillary and McCain.
Hillary is fairly small and petite. And yet her aura, her mannerisms is large! I do not believe McCain though physically larger than her could diminish Hillary or intimidate her. Her aura is just as powerful as McCain's large fullback shoulders and hide.
I think between Hillary and McCain, Hillary carries herself as if she is in the driver's seat. McCain carries himself like an old man who is just plodding along trying to make himself appear stronger than he is.
Obama and Hillary to me seem to be the more interesting contest as far as planting themselves or filling up an aura. They both are intent. They both are intelligent. And the both have an aura of strength and confidence in their body language. (And judging by the picture you posted the other day, Karen, they both are still sexy as heck!) McCain has zero sex appeal!
Ok... probably my last thought. (Who asked for my opinion you say?!!!)
The last thing that entered my head was strength through their use of their voice and their vocal chords. I believe this is related to the whole body movement analysis since proper body posture or improper body posture leads to different ranges in your vocal chords.
Anyways...
So Hillary and Obama talk with the same assertiveness in their voices as you can see throughout their shoulders, heads, and body core. They speak firmly. They are agile. There aren't awkward silent pauses full of umm...ummmm ummmm
But the last few years when I've heard McCain speak, he is using a higher register in his voice than he use to in 2000 (unless memory serves me wrong). He stutters a lot and loses track of his words. He clutches his hands together or he clutches the podium, as you said, and it's like by holding onto his hands or the furniture it is his security--his way of planting himself and trying to look intent and intimidating. But if you watch his eyes--inward focused or waving around not looking at things externally--and you listen to his voice--he sounds hesitant and shaky.
sparrow said
Good grief. If he's like this before he begins a presidential reign we'll really have a "dog's breakfast" running the so-called free world. I hope his breakdown or dementia or senility or alzheimer's is diagnosed before November.
Karen, I love learning about body language but don't know anywhere near enough to comment on it myself. Your dances are an excellent portrayal and I can see them all so clearly. Obama's dribbling before making the shot, to me is a quality I want in a leader.
Sparrow, your version of McCain's introspection also articulates what I've seen. With him it's carefully considered statements to "win the game". After that he can, like Bush before him, do exactly as he wants. Not at all like "pause to consider" but "which answer would be best for this audience?"
In terms of strength I'm not sure. I see strength in intelligence. I see that Clinton and McCain have the same bloody-mindedness or obstinacy. I haven't seen that Clinton is as malleable as your dance seems to suggest, Karen but it's good to watch, listen and think about that. In this respect both McCain and Clinton seem to be saying the words to get them elected.
It seems that the world is ready for a much younger dancer/performer. I cannot imagine McCain or Clinton getting young people to the polling booths in the numbers that Obama can. And after all, this world needs to be handed over to the young before we obliterate it completely.
Woz,
Don't take my word on it. Afterall, I haven't watched every second of McCain's tv moments. He's still more articulate than Bush. But it just seemed to me that when I first paid attention to him during 2000 election, he spoke clearly, concisely, and without any stutters or ummms....
Maybe I just have not seen enough of him.
I just got back from seeing Mike Huckabee LIVE on my campus. Do not remove his name from the list; the place was ROCKIN'!
He was also much more careful and coherent than at times in the recent past...
Karen--looks like Huckabee won Kansas.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/9/151332/7576/154/453438
Personally, I'm happy for anything that keeps McCain from feeling safe.
Personally, I'm happy for anyone who can jolt McCain out of the top position.
This ia great column that I im'd to karen and she asked me to post here~
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/09/opinion/09collins.html?ex=1203224400&en=164b1e63e8a823fb&ei=5070
don't know how to do any fancy posting but it's Gail Collins column for today.
When I told Karen the Seamus story when it broke she looked at me and said-oh he is so dead meat.
mkh,
I don't remember the Seamus story breaking. I must have been offline and too busy when it happened.
At any rate, I hope Seamus has more revenge than that!