Election 2008: Interpreting the Research - News Preferences & Cell Phones

I love research and here are two of the latest studies which may have implications for the election in the fall. I have broken them down and added graphics for easy consumption and tried to keep them short. The original sources are there if you want to delve deeper.

PART I: News Preference & Voting Patterns (Rasmussen Group)

Rasmussen's lates report on news consumption patterns finds a strong correlation with voting patterns.

Their survey was done by telephone and they also run the Presidential Tracking Poll that keeps showing a close race. In a separate survery, just over half (52%) of Americans watch television news several times a week. 37% watch every day. Half watch cable news and 26% of that crowd watch daily.

Those who get information from local television (on campaigns) favor Obama over McCain 52% to 42% IF they watch daily. If they watch less frequently, they favor McCain by 50% to 43%. The cable watchers favor McCain and the newspaper readers are equally divided, unless the newspapers are mostly read on-line, in which case Obama is favored. Among those who go online daily for news, the vote is split. Those who go on less, down to once a week, favor McCain.

See the graphic above to see the blatant right bias of Fox News. 36% of Fox viewers are preoccupied with national security, but the economy follows closely at 32%. CNN watchers are concerned about the economy over national security, with 56% to 13% for CNN and 50% to 12% for MSNBC. Talk radio is McCain territory, as 60% of regular plan to vote for him, with half as many for Obama. Talk radio listeners are also extremely concerned about national security.

70% of Katie Couric viewers favor Obama, as do 71% of Charles Gibson viewers and 57% of Brian Williams viewers. The problem is that over half of Americans (myself among them) rarely or never watch those people. Just under half (49%) of voters believe most reporters are trying to help Obama, and only 14% feel the same about McCain. Most Americans felt that the three networks and two main cable networks were all biased - Fox for Bush, the other four for Kerry. It is as though Fox is the official propaganda arm of the conservative government, in a "free nation" with a "free press."

PART II: Cell Phones & the 2008 Vote (Pew Research Center)

The latest Pew Research Center national survey finds that the overall estimate of voter presidential preference is affected by whether or not the cell phone respondents are included, though not dramatically. Read the full article at Pew Research Center - it's a study a lot of people have been waiting for, since most surveys are conducted via land line phones yet many people are reachable only via cell phone. In late June, 2004 adults were sampled, including 503 on cell phone only. Obama held an 8% lead among cell only users and a 5% lead for land liners. The Congressional vote held to a similar pattern. An earlier study had shown a 3% lead for Hillary in a cell/landline sample vs a landline only sample, and the Congressional sample showed no effect.

Cell-Only and the "Cell-Mostly" proved to be an interesting comparison. 15% or so Americans have a cell phone only and 22% have land lines but hardly use them, receiving most calls via their cells. These two groups were different in the Pew Study. Both groups were significantly younger, with more males and more minorities. The cell-mostly group was more affluent, educated and likely to be married with kids and home owning, compared with the cell only group.

Cell only? Obama and Dem Congress this fall, and less likely to be registered to vote. Cell mostly? Not much different from the larger group of older people more tethered to their land lines. Land line only samples did tend to underestimate the effect of the young, so that the sample of under-30s turned out to be about half of what it actually should be. Those under-30s reached on land lines were not that dissimilar to the cell-only group, so the indication was that they should be weighted twice as heavily in such surveys. The other implication is that an effort should be made to register more of the "cell phone only" crowd and to get them energized. Where I live, we are really hitting the summer events, as there is the down-ticket to consider also, and we have had some historically close races where a percentage point difference certainly decided the outcome!