October 2008 Archives
Some live by polls, some say polls don't matter. One thing I know. They are all over the map. You can go to PollingReport or Real Clear Politics and see them all. Talking Points Memo does a good job of summarizing. Then there are all the network and internet server polls, which are not really polls. Despite their impressively large numbers, they do not randomly sample any population scientifically. They are at best a measure of internet enthusiasm and prone to being "freeped" (altered by repeat voting and by those not affiliated with the site normally who are alerted to vote.)
Some polls show double digit national leads. On the same day, there are a couple which show a four point spread, with the race "tightening." Some polls "roll" over three days, some are taken in one. Some even use 2004 demographic models, which are bound to be misleading. When I saw one where the "internals" showed data on the 18-24 group that was completely counter-intuitive, I threw up my hands. This poll was wildly encouraging to readers of "Free Republic" and "Red State," however.
Google Trends is able to show the popularity of various searches. Last election, it was possible to predict the outcome of several races quite well using Google Search data. The results could be misleading, though, because they reflected passive search data - there was no way to tell whether people were searching for information, donating, or looking for hit pieces, just given the name of a candidate.
Pollsters spend millions to get specific data. That said, Google data mirrored poll data such as from Rasmussen. I show you below an average of major national polls, from Pollster.com and it's a couple of days old. (The race is supposed to be "tightening.")
This is for an entire year.
Now take a look at the Google data from the same time period (candidate search.)
You can see convention "bounces" and the tightening of the race, the small McCain lead briefly and the spread to Obama majority.
The article shows several Google state polls, but I'll show you the one for Pennsylvania, since McCain insists he must win this one to have a chance. The article does several state breakdowns like this for battleground states (for the last month period), with good agreement with poll averages. It's interesting but only so reassuring.
I did not even discuss my addiction to electoral maps, such as at Americans Abroad . I particularly like the ones that allow you to change states from "solid" to "leaning" and to review the results of past elections. The 1968 and 1982 maps are particularly troubling, and I feel slightly better when I look at them, which is perverse.
Ever feel like this guy? I do, so for the most part, my family and I try not to buy corporate. Other factors such as quality and price are important too, but I am a vigilant political boycotter. Some say boycotts don't work, but it's possible to hold the grudge long enough to make lifestyle changes and avoid a product or company for much longer than a day! We are in the middle of an economic downturn and have just bailed out Wall Street, so the last thing we need to do is make companies richer that are contributing to the downfall of the middle class (and those falling out of it or who haven't been able to reach it.) Then there is the issue of the worker who makes the product and how the company treats them. Do they provide benefits? Are they unionized? Do they outsource? If they do, are sweatshops used? Is the product carcinogenic or toxic? It goes on and on. Then there is the issue of political contributions.
Our family has for the most part avoided corporate grocery stores since the last election, for example, with the exception of Costco (we knew their voting pattern) and we seldom eat fast food (that is partly a quality concern). I had avoided Starbucks, since I figured they put independent coffee companies out of business. There was a "Buy Blue" movement going for awhile, but some of the guides that were in vogue then have faded away. I found the guide just recently that I will describe below, which enables me to know the political donation pattern of a variety of companies. Based on this guide, I could look up Starbucks, for example, and I might more comfortably use them somewhat more now - or not - depending upon what I was to find..
I'd like to introduce the Good Guide, which is not the only guide of this type, but it is well organized and useful. On the home page, 61,000 household and personal products are rated for safety and effectiveness, and this is useful in its own right. Mid-page, there is a section where you will see a "donkey" symbol and an "elephant" symbol, and a message that says "Vote With Your Dollars." Click at this point and load the Good Guide for Political Contributions , which tells you how to vote with your dollars. You can then support the companies that make responsible political contributions.
Now go to the left of the guide and click on "Republican leaning companies." You probably won't be surprised to see Walmart, or Coors, or some of the drugs companies, because they are notorious. You will see more companies though, and they are ranked from top to bottom for strength of support. If you click on "Democratic leaning companies," there are Costco and Starbucks and also some of the telecoms and tech companies and the more environmentally friendly cosmetics companies. I hadn't known about Avon, for example. I had somehow gotten the idea that they leaned the other way. Now I won't be so likely to avoid those people in the workplace who may peddle them.
Then we have the sectors: airlines, computer/internet, finance, food and beverages, household chemicals, media and entertainment, personal care, pharmaceuticals, restaurants and drinking establishments, retail sales, supermarkets, telecommunications, tobacco and transportation.
It's possible to enter the name of a particular company. You can also "sort" alphabetically by company, by the largest total contribution, the largest PAC percentage and the largest individual percentage.
Here it says there is a way to embed this information on a blog. Let's try it now. (UPDATE: I used a little different code, from the Good Guide people. If it wasn't working on your computer, now it may - thanks Ryan!)
View data for other companies at GoodGuide.com
That looks pretty cool! Follow the "cookbook" above and move out of just the "personal care" realm. There are other sites like this, probably, but this one alone is enough to go beyond just flying the "corporate flag." Some corporations are probably here to stay and we need to support those that are responsible, along with small and medium size businesses. This is a start.
I've been thinking a lot about time lately. Some say "time is money," but the downturn in our economy makes even that a rather abstract statement.
I received an email this morning, bright and early, that reminded me that Bush has only 99 more days til he leaves office. "99 bottles of beer on the wall," it began. "Bush Countdown Clocks" are counting down all over the country, maybe the world. That is a rather short-term clock, but counting down with urgency.
Earlier this week, I learned about the National Debt Clock, a longer term clock. Hillary Clinton even referred to it in her speech in Scranton, Pennsylvania today. She said that it was requiring another digit now. I had just read in the BBC business news as well that the National Debt Clock in New York had run out of digits to record the government's current debt of about 10.2 trillion dollars. The organization that runs the sign said it planned to update the clock next year by adding two digits so it could track debt up to a quadrillion dollars. The graphic below shows what the clock looks like, though it isn't being updated in real time.
On a larger scale, possibly, I was introduced to another time concept only last week. It's called Earth Overshoot Day and it is more related to the calendar year. We actually passed it on September 23 this year. Earth Overshoot Day moves earlier each year rather than occurring on a set day. Here's why.
Earth Overshoot Day marks the day in each year that humanity has used all the resources nature will generate in that particular year, according to Earth Footprint Network data. Earth Overshoot Day thus marks the day of each year when humanity begins living beyond its ecological means. Beyond that day, we move into the ecological equivalent of deficit spending. At that point, we are utilizing resources at a rate faster than what the planet can regenerate in a calendar year. Globally, we now now require the equivalent of 1.4 planets to support our lifestyles each year. But we only have one Earth. The result is that our supply of natural resources -- like trees and fish -- continues to shrink, while our waste, primarily carbon dioxide, accumulates.
Humanity first went into overshoot in 1986. Before that time, the global community consumed resources and produced carbon dioxide at a rate consistent with what the planet could produce and reabsorb. By 1996, humanity was using 15 percent more resources in a year than the planet could supply, with Earth Overshoot Day falling in November. Last year, Overshoot Day was in October. This year, more than two decades since we first went into overshoot, because we are now demanding resources at a rate of 40 percent faster than the planet can produce them, Earth Overshoot Day has moved forward to September 23. Humans now require the resources of 1.4 planets, for example to be able to water the playgrounds of a golf in the middle of the desert, or to light up Las Vegas, or to ski in the desert in Dubai or to surf indoors in Japan, or even to cruise around in our SUVs.
This brings us to a final clock, the Doomsday Clock. The concept should be frighteningly clear to those of us from the "Duck and Cover" generation. As of this year, the Doomsday Clock reads five minutes to midnight. The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face maintained since 1947 at the University of Chicago. Midnight represents "catastrophic destruction." It used to be more associated with global nuclear war, but now includes climate change and misuse potential for inventions such as nanotechnology as well. The clock was started at seven minutes to midnight. The clock hands have been set eighteen times.
To put things into further perspective, we have those who believe the earth is only 5000 years old, which can not really explain genetic mutation of viruses, evolution of life, carbon dating to measure age or global warming (which some of the same people do not believe in either.) Some such people are even running for high public office. The bottom line is that we are running out of time, and every decision we make needs to take into account not so much just money, but also time, immediate and distant
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Barack Obama won the Presidental debate last night, but not because he has resolved his own conflicts and challenges. Barack Obama won the debate because John McCain has not escaped the effects from his imprisonment decades ago.
From the beginning of the evening, both men were grappling with new territory, literally. The Town Hall meeting, with the empty space in the middle and actual voters (not the usual vetted supporters) all around is a challenging space in which to deliberate. The setting resembles both a boxing ring and a one-ring circus more than it does a venue for a side-by-side presentation. Add in all of the people in television land and there is a lot to take into account. Neither man seemed comfortable in the forum, but for different reasons:
Barack Obama lives in the universe of possibilities. His sense of space is vast and often without boundaries. If he were a painter, the canvas he describes as he moves around would be massive, and the colors would run off the edges. Over the past year-plus that he has been a candidate, he has learned how to narrow and focus his message and to add determination and clarity to it. But last night, he was often hesitant, slow to narrow in, and he wandered around looking slightly uncomfortable before nailing his points.
John McCain, on the other hand, began well, with his solidity and clarity present. He is a feisty guy who never gives up. But that is also his flaw. As the evening went on, he became increasingly locked in his body, entrenched in a small enclosed space, often illustrating his own internal contradictions rather than demonstrating solutions: pacing, shifting, side-stepping, restless and deeply uncomfortable.
You probably remember where you were as the last two elections were decided, just as you remember where you were when you heard about the 9/11 attacks, if you are young, and the JFK assassination, if you are my age. I won't go into the particulars of my own memories but I know that yours are seared into your psyche just like mine are. Now, the polls look pretty clear and we know what the candidates have to offer (or not), and we are a month away from voting.
Here are three articles related to election integrity and voting, and some suggestions for how to preserve your right. Please let others know. Also be aware of the deadline for registration and help others to register, if you can. Each state is different, but we are winding down. New registrations have been phenomenal. Yet danger lurks. (I could add some Brad Blog, Mark Krispin Miller, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Greg Palast but I think I'd rather slit my wrists than read through all of it.)
Raw Story - Nonprofit Offers $100,000 Reward for Info About Rove Election Rigging
Are You Registered To Vote? by Senator Ted Kennedy
New Questions About Voter Purging - involves 19 states, battleground ones!
What You Can Do:
1. Confirm that you're correctly registered at www.CanIVote.org, a website maintained by the National Association of Secretaries of State. If you are properly registered, print out a copy and take it with you to the polling place when you vote. (It's also a good idea -- and law in many places -- to also bring a photo ID that shows your address, and a bank statement, utility bill, tax notice, or other document that shows where you live.)
2. If you live in one of the 31 states that allow early voting (basically, absentee voting without having to prove you'll actually be gone on Election Day), then vote as early as possible -- that way, you'll have time to fix any problems before Nov. 4. (Plus, your local party will be able to focus their get-out-the-vote efforts on other people.)
3. Refuse to vote a "provisional ballot" unless you've exhausted every other option. If there's confusion about the spelling of your name, whether you live in the precinct, etc., work to resolve the problem (bring in more paperwork, re-register, demand to see the chief elections officer, contact your Secretary of State's office and ask for help) so that you can vote a REAL ballot by Nov. 4.
Homer Simpson Uses Electronic Voting Machine





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