Global Trends Report 2025 - What Does the Future Hold?

Is anyone thinking about the future like I am? It seems pretty hard to determine where we might be headed, and that the main thing we can try to muster is "hope." We can look at Nostradamus, or Astrology, if we are so inclined. It turns out that the current Pope predicted the economic collapse in a paper written twenty years ago, so maybe someone should have listened to him. My son took a class called "Pacific Rim" which actually predicted a lot of what I will be writing about, especially the coming pre-eminence of Russia, China, India and Brazil. Much like the Roman Empire, the United States has reached the height of its dominance over the planet.

Before Bush took office, a US Global Trends report was released which predicted a high probability of terrorist attacks against high-profile targets in the US. The USS Cole had been struck, and counter-terrorism could have held a higher priority. We will never know what might have been different, but let's hope that the new report is taken seriously. President-Elect Obama faces unprecedented economic and geopolitical turmoil, and appears to have made a strong start. He has already been receiving intelligence briefings and, along with Joe Biden, has been privy to the intelligence reports that come out frequently and go to the President. The transition team seems focussed and forward-thinking, much like the campaign we just experienced. Nevertheless, there will be mine fields to be negotiated.

The complete US Global Trends report is available at the National Intelligence Council website and is not classified. The BBC has summarized them and they are discussed in a host of other news articles. The NIC is an Independent government agency, and bases its reports on trends, to try to speculate about possible and likely futures.

The overriding feature of the report is a world marked by diminished US power, and more people sharing fewer resources. The areas of concern are: US Dominance, Terrorism, Nuclear Weapons, Food and Water, Africa, Global Pandemic and Technology. I will summarize the findings.

US DOMINANCE

The US will remain an important actor but will be less dominant in terms of global influence. The US will retain some military, technological and scientific advantages but will be unable to completely control "irregular warfare," others' long-range weapons or cyber attacks. The US will content with some degree of "anti-Americanism" and will have to help balance opinion in the middle east and Asia, regardless. Others will look to the US to play the part it should in combatting global climate change.

Internal factors in China and Russia will affect US policy, and in general, the balance of economic power will shift from the west to the east. Brazil is likely to be a rising influence. Brazil, China, Russia and India will have benefitted from oil and commodity windfall profits and manufacturing and some services will have beenshifted to Asia. China is expected to have world impact than any country in the next two decades. By 2025 China should have the world's second largest economy and the military to back it up.

TERRORISM

The bad news is that terrorism will probably not disappear by 2025 but the good news is that it may not appeal to youth if they have jobs. Economic progress in the middle east may be helpful in this respect. Terrorist groups can be expected to evolve and shift. A concern will continue to be that groups or individuals could get ahold of weapons capable of mass civilian casualities. Al Quaeda in particular may decrease in influence due to its growing unpopularity with moderate Muslims.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS

We have been living with some risk of use of nuclear weapons and it should remain low, yet be a greater risk than currently. India and Pakistan both have the bomb. North Korea could experience regime change or collapse and lose control of their nuclear arsenal. Iran could acquire nuclear weapons but fear of such a possibility could also cause other nations to arm themselves to a greater extent. Were nuclear weapons to be used in the next 15-20 years, the report states that "the international system will be shocked as it experiences immediate humanitarian, economic, and political-military repercussions." Some states would align with nuclear powers, whereas others would push for global nuclear disarmament.

FOOD AND WATER

The demand for food will rise by 50% by 2030, due to growing population but also shift to more expensive western dietary preferences. 21 countries lack stable water supplies and this number is expected to grow to 36 countries, or 1.4 billion peole. Asia and the Middle East are most precarious, and countries may experience difficulty cooperating in order to equitably disperse water. The result could be "water wars."

AFRICA

Sub-Saharan Africa will remain the region most poorly fed and disrupted, therefore unstable. Some countries may supply commodities needed other places in the world, without their own people benefitting economically - due to corrupt governments.

GLOBAL PANDEMIC

We are statistically overdue for a global influenza pandemic and it could spread more rapidly with global travel. Populations might begin to flee to avoid infection or to scramble for limited resources. The avian flu (HPAI) lurks and could become more virulent. Areas with most population density, such as in China, and especially if there is close proximity to animals, could be starting points for epidemics. According to the report, "tens to hundreds of millions of Americans within the US Homeland would become ill and deaths would mount into the tens of millions". One third of the world's population could become ill, and hundreds of millions die - a modern Black Plague.

TECHNOLOGY

We will continue the transition from old fuels to new, and we will also need technology in order to disperse food and water efficiently. Our current technologies are inadequate and the new ones will probably not be ready or widespread enough by 2025 to solve our problems. That is a sobering conclusion indeed.

Any good ideas out there?